![]() ![]() (Fun fact: Only three active offensive coordinators were hired to their post prior to 2021.) Keeping tabs on coaching changes is important because a scheme adjustment could cause a swing of hundreds of snaps (and in turn, hundreds of fantasy points). Offensive schemes matter, and the head coach/playcaller turnover in this league is absurd. This includes, but is not limited to, touchdown scoring, playcalling and coaching trends. Once you have a general idea of each player's opportunity, you can take the next step and look at how the player's team will impact his production. Focusing your attention on players who consistently rack up pass attempts, carries and targets (raw totals and team shares), especially of the high-value nature, is Step 1 in improving your team's odds for victory. Of course, the exception is not the rule. These things always regress to the mean eventually, but in a 17-week season, it's possible for the occasional outlier to sustain itself longer than expected. George Kittle, meanwhile, scored on 11 of his 86 targets last season. Diontae Johnson defied the odds last season when he failed to score a single touchdown despite 86 receptions (a dubious NFL record) and 10 end zone targets. ![]() One final thought here: We are often tricked by big plays and short spurts of dominance (usually fueled by touchdowns), and that leads to poor starting-lineup decisions. He scored more fantasy points than three quarterbacks who posted 4,400-plus passing yards and five who tossed 25-plus touchdowns. Daniel Jones scored 112.8 points with his legs last season (7.1 per game), which helped him post the position's ninth-highest point total even though he ranked 15th in passing yards (3,205) and 21st in passing TDs (15). I should point out that carry volume is important, too, but considering that the average RB target is worth 2.5 times as many fantasy points as the average RB carry, it's extremely important to not overlook each back's involvement in the passing game.įor quarterbacks, rushing production can't be understated. ![]() Dobbins (1.0 targets per game last season), Rashaad Penny (1.0), Miles Sanders (1.5) and Isiah Pacheco (0.8), but perhaps feel better about the likes of Rhamondre Stevenson (5.3), D'Andre Swift (5.0), James Conner (4.5) and Antonio Gibson (4.1). It's for that reason we should be wary about the fantasy upside of players like J.K. He's simply not much of a factor in the passing game, and that matters in fantasy football. Is that an extreme example? Sure, but there's a reason why superstar Nick Chubb has never finished a season outside the top 10 in rushing yards but has yet to produce a top-five fantasy campaign. That's a difference of 124 fantasy points, or 7.3 per game over 17 weeks. The Tampa Bay tailback had a 73-523-3 receiving line on 84 targets, compared to a 12-73-0 line on 16 targets for Williams. Which of those two backs scored more fantasy points in 2022? Believe it or not, it was Fournette. ![]() On the other hand, Jamaal Williams posted a 262-1,066-17 rushing line and that TD total was tops in the NFL. His 3.5 yards per carry was dead-last among 38 RBs with at least 120 carries. For example, last season, Leonard Fournette had an ugly-looking 189-668-3 rushing line. One easy way to see this in practice is by considering the value added by a big role in the passing game. This is especially the case for running backs, who struggle to stay healthy and are less reliant on the splash plays we see often from quarterbacks and wide receivers. On the flip side, even a pedestrian athlete can achieve fantasy viability simply because he has a significant role. In a nutshell, the greatest football player in the world can't accrue fantasy points if he's standing on the sideline or not touching the football. Opportunityįantasy football has been around for a long time, and yet the massive importance of volume remains grossly understated. Some are basic and others more advanced, but understanding the importance of each will help you take your game to the next level. Below is a breakdown of the statistical categories I focus on when making decisions for my fantasy teams. If you want to dominate your fantasy football league, it's important to cut out the noise and prioritize actionable statistics and information.įootball is a game with infinite variables, so sorting through a seemingly endless wilderness of data can seem overwhelming. You have reached a degraded version of because you're using an unsupported version of Internet Explorer.įor a complete experience, please upgrade or use a supported browserįantasy football metrics that matter most ![]()
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