It is important to note that ground temperatures are much colder that last week, so where air temps are at freezing, anything falling may very well stick on the ground. The next result for this Part 1 of the storm has already brought in bands of flurries and sleet to central Maryland and Southern Pennsylvania. Highest in the snow banding, but farther south.The focus on this report is for this morning as the faster timing I have been mentioning has been getting even faster. Moderate snow, but less for So MD/Delmarva. I want to examine that before sharing later. I highlighted that this was from the ‘morning model run’ because the afternoon run was even higher. If slower, it will dump on some west, but leave out some east. This will depend on the speed of that front. However, the location of the moderate snow band will make or break the totals. This has been trending to ‘overachiever status’. Peak of this event should be at sunrise on Sunday morning… European = Still the lowest with total snow.Canadian = Still farthest west with snow.NAM = Moderate snow, but less for So MD/Delmarva.Compare My UPDATED Call for snowfall to NEW Computer Model Guidance.(I will make an hourly timeline slider in my evening report to better track this) This time that delay appears to be over our region, enhancing the snow event. Snow will peak in the morning! The updated slows the band of snow down.ĭo you recall the two morning events we expected a cold front and icing… but that didn’t happen? This was due to the front and freezing temps being delayed…. Notice this may begin with brief rain in metro areas, but turn to snow within an hour or two of midnight. This is enough time for the ground temps to sustain stickage before sunrise… Even if we allow a 2 hour delay of the cold. Midnight to 1 AM: Freezing in Frederick, Westminster, and York PAĤ to 5 AM: Freezing in Baltimore, Aberdeen, Washington, and Annapolis. Here is a quick look at the falling temps, that should reach and remain at or below freezing. I am sure it’s crossed your mind that it is too warm for snow, or even for it to stick.īaltimore’s BWI hit 60✯ at 3 PM, marking the 3rd day in a row at or above 60… But the cold air is on the way. UPDATE: NEW POST SATURDAY NIGHT Click here to see: Snow Developing: Tracking Freezing Line And Snow Timeline UPDATED SUNDAY MORNING Click to see: What Went Right AND Wrong Overachiever NW But Delayed Cold BWI and South It is also going to be an abrupt change from the 60s, yet has support from cold enough air and timing before sunrise to counter the warm ground for stickage. It is NOT a major snow, but enough to impact travel. What may seem like an enhancement of this event, is actually just following what was originally expected a few days ago. These areas should see snow impacting morning travel which may include Church services and sports activities planned. This now includes Southern Pennsylvania and northern Delmarva. Other National Weather Service Offices have joined the party since my last report. The main take away here is that it should snowing for much of the region on Sunday morning with impact on the roads. There is still some more upside potential. I am still hedging my bets a little lower than the potential to consider some melting and overzealous computer plots. My updated snow forecast comes with model support, which I will show you below. This is thanks to colder temps and enough time before sunrise to allow the ground to cool and support stickage. This new info shows another delay, but this time supporting more snow development on our region. That busted two different morning forecasts. That slow down has happened to us before, with us on the warmer side delaying icing. This morning the guidance supposed some of that, but mainly this enhanced snow was due to a jet streak and slowing down of the front. It is a delicate balance of energy, timing, and location where that will happen. The challenge with this weather event has been the phasing I described a few days ago.
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